Arena Football 2005: 68% 2004

[AFLGuru]

Greetings! After riding with such cappers as Ace in football, Kapusta and Action in college basketball, Tatehill in the NBA, and Mr. Sharp in soccer, I finally have hit a sport in which I feel as though I can help you all earn some extra money before baseball season gets started. I feel inclined to leave some input about my background and the background about the Arena League before I get started with some picks.

First off, if anyone knows Budworth22, he's one of my roommates up here at Florida State (no jeers about Chris Rix, please). He's posted many more times than I have, but we are both active in checking posts and following picks. We began sports gambling last year, and though we were naive, and used Sports Interaction as out site (biggest mistake EVER), we netted a nice percentage profit off of the Arena League. This year, I don't expect to turn this 68% clip once again, but I feel that between 60% and 65% is reasonable. My proverbial "unit" is likely significantly less than some of yours, so take caution when following me, but know that I'm working hard to make sure we're taking money from the books this season. I'm going to do some things and make some plays most bookies wouldn't suggest (such as buying and selling points, parlays, teasers, etc.), but I'm confident in my system this year. I've devised a bit of a system that will come into effect starting in week 5 of the AFL system that will accurately project Vegas' spread ahead of time, usually within a point or so. This keeps us in front of the bookies, in order to know what to pound fast.

My sportsbook of choice is Pinnacle. I love the 9 point two team teaser option that wasn't available on Sports Interaction, and the fact that I can buy and sell points, get a moneyline value, etc. is a great addition that should help this season from the previous. I do play a lot of games on a weekly basis, but again, hit last year at 68%, with a big push coming down the stretch of the season and into the postseason.

Now, about the Arena League... People are used to seeing "football numbers" as lines, such as a team -2.5, -5.5, or +7.5... something of the sorts. In the Arena League there is no such "comfortable number" that should replace a moneyline value in any instance. The game is too high scoring, extra points are nowhere near gimmes, safeties can end, or be the deciding factor in any game... All in all, it's a complex game of 7 on 7, which takes a lot of watching to get used to. I've been an avid AFL fan for about 10 years, which has given me so many insights on the game it's not even funny.

Keys to successful AFL teams (and AFL betting) include solid quarterback play, a threat of running the football, and most importantly, a defensive line to create pressure on the quarterback, which is typically the key to a good defense. Just like in the NFL or in college where defense wins championships, very rarely does a team that averages more than 50 points per game win the Arena Bowl.

 

[sherman]

nice post guru.....

i will keep an eye on what u post, when will you start posting?

has their season started yet? i know nothing about the afl

 

[AFLGuru]

Mouse slipped on that one... Anyway, continuing on.

The bookies' favorite this year is defending champion, San Jose. Note that I'll typically avoid SJ in most games this season because the numbers they have to cover is usually ridiculously high, especially at home. For example, SJ is at Tampa Bay week one, and the line is SJ -8. This number is a bit absurd for any road team, as the home team wins SU over 70% of the time in the Arena League. Tampa is amongst the solid teams in the AFL, and it wouldn't surprise me if they win the game outright. Perhaps this will be a play to look into in about a week's time. There are several sleeper teams as there are every Arena season... For example, last year's expansion franchise, New Orleans, posted a 10-6 record. No one saw this coming. But on the shoulders of a vicious pass rush that was 3rd in the AFL in sacks in '04, they won several close games.

For anyone that has a Pinnacle account, AFL futures have some very intriguing numbers that will be my first picks of the season. Though I typically don't like tying up my money for long periods of time, profit is profit, even if it takes 4 months to return.

Arizona Rattlers under 10 wins (2 units +110) - The Arena Bowl runner-up of last year enters play with the vast majority of their team returning. Though experience, Arizona is led by Shredrick Bonner and Hunkie Cooper, both whom are coming off of off-season knee surgeries that threatened their careers. Head coach Danny White has moved on, and an entirely new staff will try to reshape the franchise. Being in the toughest division in the AFL will likely give Arizona 3 losses, paired with nasty road trips into Georgia, New York, and Tampa, as well as home dates with Colorado, Orlando, and Chicago. Can't see the Rattlers winning more than 4 of these 6, putting them at the number of 6 losses. Expect at worst a push.

Austin Wranglers under 6 wins (3 units -115) - In their first year, Austin mounted a 6-10 record under veteran quarterback John Kaleo. Kaleo's no longer on the team, leaving Austin's quarterback situation in shambles. They are one of the few teams to not have a definitive started, now just 8 days from the start of the season. Austin faded down the stretch last year, and really didn't help themselves with free agency in the off-season. Two dates with Tampa, Orlando, Georgia, and New Orleans likely spells only 2 wins. Can't see this team splitting the other 8 to get to the number, as they only have perhaps two games in which the books will have them favored in.

Columbus Destroyers under 7 wins (3 units -120) - Columbus was a team that searched for an identity all season in 2004. They are one of the two worst run franchises in the Arena League (with Grand Rapids being the other). Columbus seems to be a trendy pick to pull some upsets, but the quarterback battle of Ryan Vena (4-12 last season as starter) and Chad Salisbury leaves much to the imagination. Columbus plays in the weakest division in the AFL, thus very well could spring some upsets in the division... 8-8 won the division last season. Columbus could start the year 3-1 with a very easy schedule to start, including the opener at home vs. expansion Nashville, but expect that luster to fade, as tough road tests await the Destroyers. Columbus will be a great cover team this year, as they play with more heart than most teams do in the AFL, but lack of coaching experience (first year coach Chris Speilman) and a sorry quarterback situation will cause them to lose a number of games late.

Dallas Desperados under 6 wins (4 units -105) - If Dallas didn't play such a brutal schedule and have Clint Stoerner as a starting quarterback, I'd think they have a shot at making some noise. But this Dallas team underachieved last year with a veteran quarterback who was smart enough to skip town. Hard time finding a road game that would be expected of Dallas to win. Dallas is part of that craptastic division which 8-8 won last season, so once again, anything can happen. But short of those 3 or so divisional wins, most of the this division will go .500 at best outside of the division. Dallas won't be so fortunate.

Nashville Kats over 5.5 wins (3 units -130) - People jumped on this one the day it came out. They looked at last season's two expansion clubs both surpass this number, and parlayed it with the fact that Nashville has had a team that was well supported and created a massive home field advantage to come up with the fact that the Kats HAVE to win at least 6 games. It's almost guaranteed that Nashville will once again be one of the hardest places to play Arena Football, as "The Alley" propelled this team to back to back Arena Bowl appearances before it was moved to Georgia three seasons ago. Several players from the old Kats teams returned, included all-Arena league lineman James Baron. Baron singled-handedly destroyed quarterbacks in his two years in Nashville, and continued by bringing that toughness to help Chicago to the most sacks in the AFL. Quarterback Leon Murray led Georgia to 6 out of 8 wins down the stretch last season, and leads to much promise for the Kats to make a playoff surge. Though 4 meetings combined with Colorado and Chicago will probably result in at least 3 losses, Nashville will pull upsets at home. Don't be surprised to see Nashville cover this number just with their home games this season. If it weren't an expansion team, this would be a 5 unit play.

New Orleans VooDoo over 9 wins (4 units -105) - Wish I had gotten this when it was over 8 wins, but nonetheless, this should be relatively easy. New Orleans' biggest problem was at the quarterback position. Jim Kubiak should solve that problem this year. Though New Orleans plays in a rough and tough south division, home field advantage was huge for New Orleans last season, only losing twice at home (once in the playoffs). Austin twice, Columbus, and Grand Rapids means New Orleans should only need 6 more wins. The trick is at least splitting with Tampa. Should they do that, they'll at least get to the 9 necessary for a push, and will likely get that 10th win, as 10 will probably be the magic number to get a home playoff game once again (and two of their last three are at home).

Orlando Predators over 9.5 wins (4 units -105) - First off, the Predators are my hometown team. I'm going to avoid betting on or against them at all costs this season, but this number is holistically too good to pass up. Orlando is a trendy pick to win the Arena Bowl this year, as essentially the entire team returned that began to jell towards the end of last season. Joe Hamilton is a star in the making, and Orlando boasts one of the best defenses in the AFL year in and year out. "The Jungle," the site of their home games usually provides about 15,000 nut cases. Orlando wins SU 77% all time at home. Coach Jay Gruden knows how to win, having been a QB for 4 championships, and a coach for another two. Though quite honestly, the schedule is a bastard (which is why the win total isn't at least 10.5), the Preds should take 6 of 8 at home, leaving just 4 more wins away. Dallas and Austin should provide two of those, meaning either an extra home win or a couple road toss-ups would have to bounce their way. Expect this team to win this division and make a deep run into the playoffs. 13-3 wouldn't the least bit surprise me, but anything less than 10 would.

Whether you choose to follow me blindly, or if you are a fan of the game, I wish you the best of luck on all of your action this year. May 2005 be a profitbale year for us all! Be back with picks for the weekend of the 28th-30th this weekend.

-AFLGuru

 

[Roxygurl]

i'll be following you aflguru i LOVE arena football. we have an AF2 team here in the san diego riptide and ive been to 3 avenger games in L.A. plus most EVERY game for the riptide. ppeter is another great capper i followed last season.this will be an interesting year in arizona with all thier changes and itll be fun seeing who emerges from the west as the avengers have made changes too. i have a friend who plays for the sabercats which makes it really fun following. hes albrey battle and i think hes coming back this year. i know he was hoping for a cfl gig but havent heard news on that yet. have a great year we will be hooking up soon!arty: ~RG

 

[jwblue]

Thx...will follow.

IS

 

[AFLGuru]

Glad to see that there are actually some true fans of the AFL out there. I figured that probably 75% of the people know little to nothing about the game (or in the instance of Budworth, doesn't even like the game at all) and will just follow blindly.

LA has an interesting team this year. Losing Tony Graziani is gonna cost at least 2 wins. 99 TDs... that's absurd. Note that he added 3.5 to Philadelphia's win total from last season's 6-10 mark. Chris Jackson leaving town hurts as well. John Kaleo has no real deep threats short of Hopkins. Riley played in Orlando last year. Solid corner, but not the greatest WR. By taking Arizona under, I'm hoping that LA can beat them once, but honestly, someone in this division is gonna take a massive hit, and it just makes the most sense to be LA. Though they returned the whole team from two years ago last season, the fact of the matter says they were the third best team in the division then, and Vegas is probably going to have caught them by now. I don't think too highly of that Vegas team (at least as highly as some of the experts do), but something about fate and the AFL that leads me to believe that they're gonna make an Arena Bowl push with the game being on their home turf. But back to the Avengers, that schedule is simply put, a *****. Twice with Vegas, San Jose, and Arizona, and non-division trips to Orlando and Colorado (and look out for Nashville to beat LA in Nashville as well)... Tampa, New York, Chicago, and Georgia round out a tough home schedule that really features only one gimme game (Dallas). Best of luck to the Avengers this season, but it's probably gonna be one to forget, especially since only the best 4 teams in each conference make the playoffs (instead of the best 8 overall).

--AFLGuru

 

[Budworth22]

aaaah Adam, yes he is good. A quick story I'd like to share. I was coming back to our nasty dorm last year after breaking up with my girlfriend via the "crash her dad's expedition, leading to her getting suspended from her sorority for a year" method, and I went to Adam's room. He had all these numbers all over his desk, and declared "vegas is stupid man, they just use these algorithms to set the lines", and he proceeded to predict every line within a point. He does in fact, know his stuff very well, although I do sometimes tire of hearing lines such as

Joe Hamilton is a star in the making

, and

"The Jungle," the site of their home games usually provides about 15,000 nut cases.

around the apartment.

WARNING: wagering on the AFL may actually tempt you to watch the AFL. It is ok, in moderation, but please remember, it is really AFLS (American Football Like Substance).
Make some money man.

 

[Marco]

AFLGuru.....if SJ is going to be propped up with too high numbers to bet, then take the points and burn the book.....

Tough to do all the time but I am learning more and more that sometimes if I really don't like one side then a play on the other side may be warranted....

I make some arena bets here and there, I'll look you up to see where you guys are going with the $$$....

Good Luck, Mark...

 

[Publius]

As a fellow Seminole I feel inclined to ride you AFLGuru. I've never really watched AFL, but I'm willing to give anything a try with the word "football" in it.

When does EA Sports AFL 2005 come out? That would be the best thing to ever happen to the AFL.

 

[AFLGuru]

Marco:

The problem with fading San Jose is that they are certainly one of the elite teams in the AFL. They have some of the best talent in the league and are constantly returning key players from the previous season. San Jose lays these big numbers against 2nd tier, bottom level playoff teams all the time, especially on the road. I am reminded of their game against Grand Rapids last season when some people thought the Rampage were going to turn up alright. San Jose was a 21.5 point favorite. Not only did they cover, they covered handlely. I believe they won by 42. The great teams like San Jose, Orlando, Chicago, etc. will lay over a TD on the road all the time, and more often than not, they'll at least win the game. Because this is a game of surprises, at any given moment, a home team can pull off a big statistical upset. However, more often than not, in a situation like this SJ-TB game, San Jose will likely be near that number the majority of the game. If home field advantage prevails, Tampa will not only cover, but win. Since the AFL is a matchup game though, I have a hard time fading a team that is probably man for man 10-14 points better than their opponents when the line is only 8. Money will be better spent elsewhere. If there's a play in the game, it'll be Tampa on the moneyline for a half unit or something like that.

Thanks for the feedback.
--AFLGuru

 

[degenerategambler]

AFLG, I hope you have a great season, especially since it looks like you've already picked up a few followers without ever having made a play on the forum. No knock against you but I would caution anyone against following someone who claims to have a 68% winning %. If true you are probably the best capper on these forums by a wide wide wide margin, as most pros consider a 55% to be a lofty goal. I would just caution people to tread lightly before blindly following someones plays. GL this season...

 

[AFLGuru]

I understand that 68% is a lofty number from last season. If I wasn't basically an idiot with how I played my games (for example, reaching, absurd parlays for quick profits, etc.) I would have netted much more money. I also admitted that the 68% was quite insane last year and that it would be absurd to think that I am actually going to pull that feat off again. 60 is a nice goal to shoot for. The proverbial 55% number is a good number for sheer profit, but understandably, anyone that hits under that 55% is barely beating the juice. Action from the NCAAB boards is hitting at I believe it was 61% last time I checked, and from what he makes it seem like, that number is about right for his "career."

I understand that laws of averages says I'm going to hit at what, 32% this season, but that would as extreme of a low as last season was a high. Obviously 32% is a ridiculous margin because just picking all the favorites to cover should hit at least 45% of the time. Anything less is either really bad luck or really bad capping.

All that being said, it's not about the winning percentage this year. The 68% is nice, but I'm understandably going to be more focused on net. Kapusta from the NCAAB board is hitting at about 52%, but his 5* plays are hitting right around that 60% mark, giving him a nice bit of profit in terms of units. I'll take a 3-3 weekend EVERY weekend if it nets 3 or 4 positive units. Profit is profit is profit.

Thanks for the feedback. Best of luck on your action. Now that final cuts in the AFL have been made, my picks for next week will be issued by the end of the weekend.

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Publius--

To answer your question about the AFL game, it'll be a 2006 game. My guess says it gets released at some point between this year's Arena Bowl and next year's training camps. I'll let you know when the dates get announced.

Predators signed one of the all-time great kickers in the AFL today I watched too many Preds games over the past 3 seasons that have been squashed due to poor place kicking. Right when we get a good kicker in there, the damn Bucs scoop him up. Oh well, guess it's part of your coach being brother of a bigger coach in a bigger pond than the AFL. No worries about missed extra points in critical spots this year for Orlando.

By the way, one more pick...

Leaning: Los Angeles Avengers under 9 wins (2 units -115) - My gut feeling on this one is that LA is gonna be one of the worst teams in the AFL this season, but there's really nothing more on that than gut. LA has a bastard of a schedule and lost their entire offense from last season, but their coaching staff always fields a competitive team. Everyone in the west finished at least .500 last year, and with Vegas expected to finish above .500, I can't see LA doing better than that unless they beat out Arizona. Fat chance. Any team with Chris "Ding Dong" Doering as an offensive specialist shouldn't stand a chance. However, crappy NFL wide receivers have had a history of being pretty good offensive specialists in the AFL (see: Travis McGriff and Marcus Nash). For that reason I'll lay off for now, but it's a lean I might jump on before the season gets started.

Best wishes-
--AFLGuru

 

[degenerategambler]

AFLG, you can tell from your reply that your not a outright blowhard without a clue, good luck this season, always looking for insight on sports I don't have a clue on...

 

[olddog]

Great Info AFL Guru

I too am an avid follower of AFL (and af2) because I believe they are one or two of the only remaining sports where an informed gambler has more knowledge than the linesmaker.

In addition to your valuable comments, is there any site that you have found that provides a good preview of each individual team? The official site (arenafootball.com) has some very superficial evaluations of each team provided by Ray Bently from NBC, but I have accessed several other AFL sites and found no team-by-team evaluations.

Good luck this year. You are correct and realistic when you say you probably can't repeat your winning percentage from last year, but it was great considering most folks had a tough time betting on the AFL last year as the lines became much sharper. I have bet on the AFL for two years, winning a high percentage of bets in my first year and barely making a profit last year.

 

[olddog]

Columbus - QB-Vena Waived 1/16

Guru - your comment of 1/20 that, "...the quarterback battle of Ryan Vena (4-12 last season as starter) and Chad Salisbury leaves much to the imagination" does indeed leave much to the imagination as Vena was waived on 1/16 and Salibury named the starter.

 

[AFLGuru]

Olddog--

Great to have you onboard. Typically I just access the teams' websites and the AFL's website. I know they aren't the brightest guys online, but fortunately for us, this is the only material that the books are looking at as well! So Ryan Vena finally got released, huh... that guy threw one really ugly ball. And if Chad Salisbury is the starter, I feel equally good about my chances of Columbus not being a .500 team. He tried blowing the playoff game against Orlando last year and then played pretty poorly down the stretch in San Jose (granted, no easy test to be playing the Saberkittens, especially on the road).

Though the lines did tighten up last season, I took a lot of things into consideration when choosing games. Over/unders became A LOT more favorable in my eyes, though the lines became, as you said, much tighter. I had a nice run of in the last 5 or 6 weeks and into the playoffs last year. When Pinny had Arena Bowl props, I was ALL OVER those things. I can only hope for more of the same this year.

Just out of curiosities' sake, do you think Nashville can win the division this year? I just can really see those guys sneaking up on a lot of people, almost like the Chargers did this year in the AFC West. Chicago's one Raymond Philyaw injury from being screwed again, and Colorado I still believe to be overrated. John Dutton isn't that great.... But he's better than Chad Salisbury anyway... lol.

--AFLGuru

 

[KillerInstinct]

Guru: how high do your units go? Is 4 units a large play for you or small? thanks

 

[AFLGuru]

Killer--

I go off of 5 units max (with a unit being 1% of the available balance), but I'm going to make the attempt to reserve those 5 unit plays for the REALLY good stuff. I don't figure on playing more than maybe a half dozen 5 unit plays, and I won't play more than 5 unit unless it's a can't miss moneyline game (something like an 8 point home favorite that I think the points are in question but the game isn't). I can't promise I'll do that, because I hate wagering more than 5 units on anything, but the situation may arise.

Picks coming for week one at some point in the next 48 hours or so...

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[olddog]

Re: Nashville

The Kats picked up some very good OL/DLmen (C-Morris (ex Ariz vet w/ 5 yrs exper), Baron(vg experienced vet) and Henry Taylor(vet)). One of these guys (I think Baron) is a dominant pass rusher.

OS-Cooper was #4 receiver on SJ - SJ had a very deep squad at that position.

My concern is at QB where Leon Murray, though experienced and running an offense similar to the one he ran @ Georgia, is inconsistent and it appears the defense (other than the DL) is very young.